Asia’s winter 2025/26: Four strategic takeaways for commercial property
As Asia heads into the 2025/26 winter season, the climate narrative is dominated by La Niña’s lingering influence, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the strengthening Siberian High.
What does that mean? The weather story will be shaped by three big patterns:
- La Niña (where sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are cooler than average) is still hanging around, making things wetter in some places.
- The IOD (the temperature differences between two sides) is negative, which also usually means wetter conditions.
- The Siberian High (a large cold air system) is getting stronger, which can push cold air further south.
According to local experts, these teleconnections will shape everything from rainfall extremes in Southeast Asia to cold waves in northern India and Korea. For commercial property owners and insurers, understanding these dynamics is critical, for operational continuity and for anticipating risk exposure across assets, supply chains, and infrastructure resilience.
The Big Picture: ENSO and monsoon dynamics
Climate models indicate a weak to moderate La Niña phase persisting through December to February, with a transition to neutral conditions likely by March 2026. Historically, La Niña winters bring wetter conditions to Southeast Asia and colder-than-average spells to northern Asia, while the negative IOD amplifies rainfall over the continent. For insurers, this means heightened flood risk in Malaysia and Thailand, and storm surge concerns for coastal assets in the South China Sea. Conversely, energy demand spikes in Korea and northern India could strain grids and impact business continuity.
Country Snapshots
Singapore: Warm, wet, and watchful
A strengthening of low-level winds blowing from the northeast/northwest around the end of November signaled the start of the Northeast Monsoon season, bringing above-normal rainfall and slightly warmer-than-average temperatures. No surprise for locals here: expect frequent showers in December and January, with localized flooding risk in low-lying urban zones. While the city-state’s drainage infrastructure is robust, insurers should monitor flash flood exposure for basement-level commercial properties and construction sites.
FM’s focus: Water ingress, with particular concerns for business interruption for retail and hospitality during peak rainfall episodes.
South Korea: Cold spells and snow risk
Forecasts are showing that early winter in Korea will be mild to slightly above normal, but by January, the Siberian High strengthens, driving cold air outbreaks and prolonged cold spells. Seoul could see average lows near -5°C, with snowfall risk increasing in February, especially in upland areas. While precipitation is near-normal overall, blizzard conditions in northern provinces could disrupt logistics and damage exposed assets.
FM’s focus: Frozen pipes in older commercial buildings, heating system failures, and potential transport delays impacting supply chains. Insurers should review contingent business interruption clauses for manufacturing clients reliant on on-time delivery.
Hong Kong: Mild but dry, with a twist
Hong Kong’s winter outlook points to normal to above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall, underpinned by La Niña’s cooling effect on the Pacific. While this suggests a relatively benign season, dry conditions can elevate fire risk (separate from the recent tragic events), particularly in older commercial districts with dense electrical loads. The city’s property managers should also factor in seasonal wind surges, which can stress glazing and façade systems on high-rise assets.
FM’s focus: Fire prevention audits, windstorm coverage adequacy, and review of sprinkler maintenance schedules.
Malaysia: Monsoon flooding front and centre
Malaysia’s Northeast Monsoon, which began in late November, has already brought its first heavy rain episodes and is expected to deliver several more through February, with Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang, Johor, Sarawak, and Sabah most exposed. Flooding risk spikes when heavy rain coincides with high tides, threatening industrial parks and logistics hubs along river basins. Strong northeasterly winds will also create rough seas, impacting offshore energy operations and port activities.
As noted, things started a bit early this year with Cyclone Senyar, which formed unusually in the Strait of Malacca in mid-November. This system brought torrential rains and triggered widespread flooding and landslides across several Malaysian states, displacing tens of thousands of people and causing significant infrastructure damage.
FM’s focus: Property damage from inundation, marine cargo delays, and the chance of increased business interruption claims for manufacturing clusters. Businesses should stress-test portfolios for aggregate flood exposure and validate parametric triggers for flood covers.
India: La Niña’s chill and fog disruptions
Northern India is bracing for colder-than-normal conditions, with frequent cold waves and dense fog expected across Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. Minimum temperatures could plunge to 3°C in the plains and -5°C in Himalayan states, while snowfall risk escalates in Himachal and Uttarakhand. Fog-related transport disruptions may ripple through aviation and road freight, causing cargo delays.
FM’s focus: Energy demand surges, and possible crop damage from frost (impacting agri-insurance). Commercial property managers should ensure HVAC resilience and backup power systems are in place.
“For commercial property owners and insurers, understanding these dynamics is critical.”
Thailand: Cool north, wet south
Thailand’s winter onset looks to be delayed, but the predicted coldest period will span mid-December to early February, with northern provinces expected to dip to 7–8°C. Bangkok will likely hover around 18–20°C, while the south faces persistent heavy rain and flash flood risk, particularly along the gulf coast. Tourism-linked assets like hotels & resort should prepare for weather-related infrastructure strain.
FM’s focus: Potential flood exposure for southern hospitality assets, storm surge risk for coastal developments, and fire risk in drier northern zones.
Strategic takeaways for risk managers
- Flood preparedness: Malaysia and southern Thailand may require enhanced flood modeling, factoring in tide cycles and upstream catchment saturation.
- Cold wave contingency: Korea and northern India should have freeze protection protocols for water systems and energy resilience planning.
- Fire risk audits: Separate from the recent tragic events, Hong Kong’s dry winter elevates electrical fire risk—a timely review of suppression systems is prudent.
- Supply chain resilience: Fog and snow disruptions in India and Korea will call for alternative routing strategies and inventory buffers.
Looking ahead
While La Niña’s grip may loosen by March, the interplay of monsoon dynamics, polar vortex variability, and regional climate linkages ensures a complex risk landscape. For commercial property stakeholders, this winter is less about business as usual and more about anticipating compound hazards; from water to wind to frost. In an era of climate volatility, proactive adaptation beats reactive recovery.