How business can respond to changes in extreme weather
Extreme weather is changing. And business leaders know it.
In a recent survey by FM, 78% of risk-decision makers agreed that changing weather patterns mean past assumptions about their exposure to extreme weather are no longer relevant.
Dr. Angelika Werner, research area director of climate risk and resilience at FM, said that the recent prevalence of extreme weather events reflect fundamental changes in the globe’s weather.
“Extreme weather activity today can’t be simply extrapolated from the past,” she explained. “The underlying conditions that drive the weather are changing.”
This change can be attributed to the growing heat of the planet. “We know that the global average temperature has grown to around 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels. Given that over 70% of the Earth’s surface is covered by ocean, this means the land mass has warmed by much more than that.”
This planetary warming has cascading effects that disrupt global weather patterns:
- With every 1°C increase in temperature, the air can hold 6-8% more moisture, leading to heavier extreme precipitation events.
- Sea levels rise as the ice caps melt. With that, there is an increase in storm surge amplitude and increased coastal erosion
- Warming oceans allow tropical cyclones and other convective systems to develop to higher intensity and carry more moisture onto shore.
- Prolonged high temperatures lead to drought and enhance the conditions for wildfire.
“The likelihood of very extreme rainfall has been increasing and translates to the kind of floods we’ve seen in Spain, Pakistan and Texas over the past year,” explained Werner. “At the same time, we’re seeing dry seasons extend, giving rise to extremely dry conditions.”
Extremes of wet and dry weather – sometimes known as ‘climate whiplash’ – amplify the destructive impact. Dry soil cannot absorb heavy rain, increasing the risk of flooding, and wildfires are more likely to spread when vegetation is lush after a rainy period.
New tools to understand extreme weather dynamics
Despite acknowledging these changing weather patterns, 95% of risk-decision makers believe they are either ‘fully’ or ‘mostly’ aware of the exposure of their business operations to extreme weather.
This might be true of their current exposure. But forecasting extreme weather risks in 5 to 10 years requires a deeper understanding of how extreme weather is changing and why. “To forecast the risk in 5 to 10 years, we need to understand the weather dynamics behind these events,” said Werner.
New analytical methods are allowing research to explore these dynamics. FM’s research division, for example, is building machine learning algorithms to examine the relationship between atmospheric conditions and severe convective storms.
“Understanding this relationship will hopefully allow us to apply that knowledge into the current climate and then into the future.”
Emerging applications of artificial intelligence also include high-resolution weather modeling. “This is a completely new skill set that meteorologists are now beginning to use and that can complement classical numerical modeling of weather and climate,” Werner explained.
Of course, for businesses the crucial question is how the changing extreme weather will affect their facilities and operations. Here, too, technology is shedding new light: FM engineers are using 3D models to simulate how floodwater would pass through clients’ facilities and therefore assess the likely damage.
Scientific and technology advances such as these will be essential in building resilience against increasingly extreme weather. “Our whole philosophy is based on the idea that more people using good science-backed risk assessment will ultimately benefit us and our clients,” Werner said.